Farming associations across South Africa are celebrating optimistic forecasts from the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), projecting the nation’s harvest at a significant 17.2 million tonnes, marking an 11% increase from the previous season.

This upward trend is stirring hope among farmers who endured challenging conditions last year.

The anticipated commercial maize crop is forecasted at 13 911 150 tons, representing an increase of 8.26%, or 1 061 150 tons, compared to last season’s yield of 12 850 000 tons.

In addition, the CEC revised its estimate for sunflower seed—a staple in South African agriculture—indicating that 555 700 hectares have been planted, which is 5.05% (or 26 700 hectares) more than the previous year.

The sunflower seed production forecast stands at 720 050 tons, showcasing a robust growth of 13.93%, or 88 050 tons, from last year's figure of 632 000 tons.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist for the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), said that South Africa’s agricultural production conditions were improving, bolstering our long-held belief in a better season ahead.

“We have been stating for some time that this will likely be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture. This follows a severe mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season, which negatively impacted the harvest of grains and oilseeds,” he said.

Sihlobo added that the first production estimates for 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds, released at the end of February 2025, suggesting a better harvest.

“The CEC forecasts the harvest at 17.2 million tons, up 11% from the previous season. This comprises maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. The expected yield improvements support better harvest prospects. The overall area planted is 4.4 million hectares, roughly unchanged from last season.”

Sihlobo said that as this is a preliminary production estimate and may not completely reflect the benefits of the widespread rains recently we could expect further upward revisions in the months ahead.

“A closer look at the data shows the first maize production estimate at 13.9 million tons, up 8% year over year. About 7.4 million tons is white maize (up 22%), and 6.5 million tons is yellow maize (down 4%). The difference is caused by the area switch, with white maize taking a more significant area and the yield expectations.”

Farming association TLU SA general manager, Bennie van Zyl, said that they were very thankful for the recovery of the crops in the summer rainfall areas.

“It was a very late start and we were concerned with the drought and if there was enough time for the crops to go through all the phases in time for the harvest,” he said.

“Some of the individual farmers didn’t get good crops because of the late rains, but in general, this is good news for South Africa and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region in general. It will also allow us to export to our neighbouring countries.”

Dr André van der Vyver, an executive director of the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (Sacota), said that there was a late start to the season in most areas and the rainfall pattern varied considerably from area to area.

“This makes estimating a crop size very difficult. Therefore, many analysts still work on a range for their estimates, a luxury the CEC does not have. At the time of the CEC estimate, we thought it was a fair number, maybe slightly on the low side of a range. Since then, we have seen good rains in most areas,” Van der Vyver said.

“We therefore expect the yields to increase in the next estimate. Rainfall forecasts for the next week or two also remain reasonably favourable.”

Francois Rossouw, CEO of Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), said that the projected 11% increase in summer grain and oilseed production is good news for the agricultural sector, especially following the severe drought conditions.

“Given the substantial recent rainfall across key production areas, these estimates align closely with what we're observing on the ground. The strong performance in crops like maize, soybeans, and sorghum is particularly encouraging,” Rossouw said.

“However, farmers still face significant challenges such as infrastructure limitations and rising input costs.”

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