The urgent need for adaptation in South Africa's infrastructure investments

When torrential rains unleashed devastating floods in KwaZulu-Natal in 2022, we witnessed a stark tragedy with over 400 lives lost, thousands displaced, aggregate and damages exceeding R17 billion. This disaster, alongside many others countrywide sends a clear message - we remain highly exposed to climate change impacts, with devastating consequences already visible across the nation.

Despite these clear threats, our response remains critically inadequate, with just 12% of South Africa’s climate finance (around R16 billion annually) dedicated climate adaptation in contrast to the projected need of R866 billion by 2030, escalating sharply to R1.9 trillion by 2050, according to World Bank estimates.

The 2025 Budget Speech brought about much criticism on the proposed VAT increased, however Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana outlined an ambitious infrastructure investment plan, with over R1 trillion allocated to transport, energy, and water over the next three years, provides a critical opportunity to address this imbalance. Although much more investment is required, this allocation presents a pivotal opportunity to correct the adaptation investment deficit, however more crucially, while these investments are critical for economic growth and service delivery, they risk falling short if they fail to systematically integrate climate adaptation and resilience in their implementation.

South Africa’s infrastructure spending must not only address current backlogs but must also future proof the nation against escalating climate risks, from droughts and floods to heatwaves and rising energy insecurity.

The Urgency of Mainstreaming Adaptation in Infrastructure

Adaptation and resilience cannot be an afterthought. Our roads, railways, and dams built today must withstand the climate of 2050. Prasa’s R19.2 billion signaling upgrades should include flood-resistant designs, given that extreme rainfall events will intensify. Similarly, Sanral’s road resealing projects must use heat-tolerant materials to combat rising temperatures.

The Mkhomazi and Berg River-Voëlvlei dam projects must account for prolonged droughts and shifting rainfall patterns in their designs. Also, transmission infrastructure under the Independent Transmission Programme should be fortified against extreme weather, while renewable energy projects must prioritize decentralized grids to reduce vulnerability during climate shocks.

Harnessing Private Sector for Resilience

The Budget Speech places an emphasis on private-sector participation, such as Transnet’s Private Sector Participation (PSP) projects and resilience bonds which is a welcomed and progressive step, but these mechanisms must explicitly prioritize adaptation. For instance, the proposed credit guarantee vehicle planned for launching in 2026 should derisk adaptation projects, such as green roofs in urban areas or drought-resistant agriculture.

Added to this, equity as the cornerstone of resilience is highlighted by "inclusive growth," however adaptation and resilience investments must deliberately target marginalised communities who are most vulnerable and endure the most of climate impacts. In advancing urban resilience, the R115.7bn local government share should mandate climate-proofing of informal housing and stormwater systems in townships. Another is that as part of rural adaptation, agriculture-focused grants like the merged conditional grants mentioned in the budget must fund smallholder irrigation systems and drought-resistant crops.

To support this, when planning, South Africa’s Budget Facility for Infrastructure (BFI) and the new PPP regulations should mandate climate risk assessments for all projects, especially the major investment projects, ensuring that every funded project undergoes a climate resilience audit.

Real Returns

Despite fiscal constraints, adaptation investment represents prudent asset management because it is significantly more cost-effective than post-disaster recovery expenditure. Studies by the World Bank show that every $1 invested in adaptation and disaster risk reduction saves between $4 and $10 in disaster-related economic losses. Therefore, without sufficient adaptation investment, we will be forced to spend astronomical amounts on post-disaster recovery and reconstruction efforts.

So, strengthening transmission lines against storms could prevent millions in downtime costs while fixing municipal pipe leaks which lose significant volumes of treated water would reduce strain on new dams and improve municipal revenue. Allocating parts of the R1 trillion infrastructure budget to resilience-specific measures such as early-warning systems or climate-smart interventions would yield long-term dividends.

The Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) is playing a crucial role in driving South Africa’s adaptation and resilience agenda. Through policy guidance, stakeholder engagement, and comprehensive climate impact assessments, the PCC is ensuring adaptation strategies are inclusive, evidence-based, and aligned with national priorities.

The 2025 Budget’s infrastructure commitments are a down payment on South Africa’s future, but only if they mitigate significant risks of which climate change is significant. As Minister Godongwana stated, "difficult choices" define this moment.

The hardest choice of all would be to build today’s infrastructure for yesterday’s climate. By embedding adaptation into every road, dam, and power line, South Africa can turn its infrastructure spending into a legacy of resilience, equity, and sustained growth.

The time to act is now. The more we postpone adaptation, the fewer viable solutions remain, and the more expensive they become. Climate change is not waiting for the next budget cycle.

Morwesi Ramonyai Thonga is a Senior Advisor to the Presidential Climate Commission on Adaptation Finance.

*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL.

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